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Petrol prices could fall before year-end, but an economist warns of economic fallout from the latest hike

By Mapaballo Borotho

Here’s what South African motorists can expect at the pumps
Image @Business Tech
  • South Africans will pay more than R30 a litre for 95 unleaded petrol from Wednesday as steep fuel price increases take effect.
  • Economist Dawie Roodt warns that the latest hike could put further pressure on inflation and economic growth, although he says petrol prices could decline before the end of the year.
  • Meanwhile, Cosatu is calling on government to fast-track funding for the Central Energy Fund’s Equalisation Fund to help shield consumers from international oil price shocks.

South Africans are preparing to pay more than R30 a litre for fuel as the latest increase comes into effect at midnight on Wednesday.

The Department of Mineral Resources and Petroleum confirmed the new price adjustments on Monday, attributing the increase to higher international oil prices, as well as the Rand’s performance against the US dollar amid the conflict in the Middle East and the United States.

Renowned economist Dawie Roodt says the latest hike in fuel prices is yet another major blow to the country’s economy.

“Obviously, the hike will put further up with inflation pressure, and that inevitably means the Reserve Bank may eventually be forced to increase interest rates again. It really depends on circumstances, so I am afraid economic growth is likely to be significantly below 1% this year.”

Could petrol prices decrease before year-end?

When asked whether there is a likelihood of fuel prices decreasing before the end of 2026, Roodt said there is a possibility, but it will depend largely on the Rand and international oil prices.

“There’s definitely a chance. Unfortunately, the Rand is under some pressure, but it also seems as if it is coming back a little bit, and if that happens, then yes, there’s a possibility of a reduction in petrol prices before the end of this year, but it depends on the Rand and the oil price, and I think both of them seem to be moving in the right direction.”

Cosatu calls for government intervention

Meanwhile, the Congress of South African Trade Unions (Cosatu) is calling on government to fast-track the Second Special Appropriation Bill, which would provide R10 billion to the Central Energy Fund’s Equalisation Fund.

Cosatu says the funding could help assist consumers against international oil price shocks and limit the impact of the latest fuel price increases.

Cosatu Parliamentary Coordinator Matthew Parks says the government needs to intervene, which could help protect households while supporting the economy.

New fuel prices

From midnight on Wednesday, 93 unleaded petrol will rise by R3.12 a litre, while 95 unleaded petrol will increase by R3.33 a litre.

Diesel prices will also increase by either R2.84 or R3.24 a litre, depending on the grade.

Households that rely on illuminating paraffin will also feel the pinch, with the wholesale price increasing by R3.58 a litre and the retail price increasing by R4.00 a litre.

With fuel prices affecting transport and the cost of goods and services, the latest increase is expected to add further pressure to already stretched household budgets.

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