By: Natasha Archary

The South Africa Reserve Bank (SARB) has decided to leave the repo rate untouched at 8.25% into the second half of the year.
On Thursday, 18 July Reserve Bank Governor Lesetja Kganyago said while two members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) preferred a reduction of 25 basis points, four members preferred an unchanged stance.
“As we move into the second half of the year, global inflation continues to ease. The very rapid price increases of 2022 and 2023 have receded. However, inflation in most economies has yet to stabilise in line with targets. For example, in June, consumer price inflation was 3% in the United States, and 2.5% in the euro area, still above those economies’ 2% targets. Services and wage price inflation has proven stubborn, underpinned by resilient economic activity and low unemployment rates across major economies.
Turning to South Africa, economic performance in the first half of the year was disappointing. The economy contracted slightly in the first quarter, by 0.1%, and recent data, including last week’s mining and manufacturing numbers, have caused us to trim our second quarter growth estimate modestly, to 0.6%. Over the medium term, we expect somewhat faster growth, supported by a more reliable electricity supply and improving logistics, among other factors. Our revised growth projections nonetheless remain below longer-run historical averages, of about 2%. The risks to this forecast are assessed as broadly balanced, with ample scope for structural reforms to lift growth further over the medium term.”
The MPC decided to keep the repo rate unchanged at 8.25%. Four members preferred an unchanged stance, and two preferred a reduction of 25 basis points. pic.twitter.com/JddmlKxg0t
— SA Reserve Bank (@SAReserveBank) July 18, 2024
Against this backdrop, the MPC decided to keep the repo rate unchanged at 8.25%.
Domestically, inflation expectations do not yet reflect the 4.5% midpoint objective over the medium term. While expectations are moving in the right direction, they continue to show the impact of the recent inflation surge.
Global interest rates remain high, especially in the United States, and rates may stay higher for even longer than markets currently anticipate. This presents risks to the currency outlook.
James Turp, Fixed Income Portfolio Manager and Head of Investment Strategy at Sanlam Investments joins Gugulethu Mfuphi on Kaya Biz to discuss SARB’s decision.
Listen to the conversation on Kaya Biz:
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