By Mapaballo Borotho
- South Africa’s fertility rate has been declining, but the country’s population continues to grow.
- Stats SA says the population increased from 42.9 million in 2002 to 63.5 million in 2026.
- The decline in fertility could have long-term consequences for the country’s workforce, economy and population structure.
From declining birth rates to declining fertility rates and claims that South Africa is “running out of babies”, Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) says the picture is more nuanced.
While fertility rates have declined over time, the country’s population has grown significantly over the past two decades, reflecting the combined impact of births, deaths and migration.
The issue of declining fertility and birth rates has come under the spotlight following a report claiming that South Africa is running out of babies as more women prioritise other aspects of their lives, including their careers, over childbearing.
The report, which has been trending on social media, said the shift is already more advanced in South Africa’s biggest urban provinces, including Gauteng and the Western Cape.
Rural provinces, meanwhile, continue to record higher levels of childbearing.
According to Stats SA, the latest Mid-Year Population Estimates (MYPE) for 2026 show that South Africa’s population increased from 42.9 million in 2002 to 63.5 million in 2026, representing an average annual growth rate of 1.3%.
Over the same period, the world’s population grew from 6.3 billion to 8.3 billion.
Stats SA says South Africa’s population continues to grow, with an annual population increase of 1.2% recorded between 2025 and 2026.
“Population growth is driven by three main factors: births, deaths and migration. However, the rate of natural increase looks only at the difference between births and deaths, excluding the effect of migration.
Across the world, the rate of natural increase has been declining as fertility rates have fallen. In many countries, fertility has dropped below the replacement level of around two children per woman, raising concerns about ageing populations, shrinking workforces, and the long-term sustainability of population growth.
While South Africa’s rate of natural increase has also declined over time, the country continues to experience overall population growth.”
Why are fertility rates declining?
According to Stats SA, South Africa’s youthful population continues to play an important role in sustaining population growth, even as women have fewer children than previous generations.
“South Africa’s relatively youthful population plays an important role in sustaining population growth. Although women are having fewer children than in previous generations, there are still many women of childbearing age. Combined with improving female life expectancy, this means that the country continues to record enough births to support population growth.”
In other words, a decline in the number of children women have does not immediately translate into a shrinking population.
South Africa still has a large population of women of childbearing age, meaning the country continues to record births even as fertility levels decline.
Although slightly more boys than girls are born in South Africa, women outnumber men in the overall population.
Approximately 51% of South Africa’s population in 2026, or 32.3 million people, are female.
Stats SA attributes this to higher mortality among men and women having a higher life expectancy at birth.
How could falling birth rates reshape the economy?
The economic consequences of falling fertility rates can be considered through two broad channels: the long-term impact of population size on innovation and economic growth, and the more immediate effects of a changing population structure.
A declining fertility rate can eventually mean fewer people entering the workforce, while a growing proportion of the population may become older and dependent on those of working age.
In the long run, sustained economic growth is also closely linked to innovation and the development of new ideas.
More people can mean a larger pool of researchers, entrepreneurs and innovators contributing to new technologies, businesses and solutions.
As fertility rates decline, the potential pool of future workers and innovators also becomes smaller.
If this trend continues over a long period, it could place pressure on economic growth and living standards, particularly if the number of working-age people begins to shrink.
On the other hand, slower population growth could also have environmental benefits, including lower emissions and reduced pressure on natural resources.
For now, however, Stats SA says South Africa’s population continues to grow, despite the long-term decline in fertility and the rate of natural increase.
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